In this book, Josef Braml and Mathew Burrows remind us that the future is always uncertain and explore three possible scenarios for how global events might unfold in the coming years: a bad scenario (a new Cold War with a massive loss of prosperity, particularly in the poorest countries), an ugly one (World War III) and a tolerable one (reformed globalisation 2.0 with a return to global cooperation, overcoming all the existing disputes). When we think in political scenarios, we are better able to identify the levers that need to be pulled in order to achieve a tolerable outcome and avoid disaster. Because one thing is clear: given the challenges we face – the continuing severe poverty in the world and the prospect of climate change – we cannot afford to slip into a morass of confrontation and military conflict.

• ‘My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.’ - Mike Minihan, four-star general in the US Air Force

• The greatest risk of our age lies in the confrontation between China and the USA

• What could help to reduce this risk

• We cannot afford a new Cold War – and definitely not a hot one

• More global cooperation is needed in order to bring climate change under control

• ‘Die transatlantische Illusion’ has sold 10,000 copies